Satellite Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modeling for Flood Inundation Mapping in Lake Victoria Basin: Implications for Hydrologic Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Floods are among the most catastrophic natural disasters around the globe impacting human lives and infrastructure. Implementation of a flood prediction system can potentially help mitigate flood-induced hazards. Such a system typically requires implementation and calibration of a hydrologic model using in situ observations (i.e., rain gauges and stream gauges). Recently, satellite remote sensing data have emerged as a viable alternative or supplement to in situ observations due to their availability over vast ungauged regions. The focus of this study is to integrate the best available satellite products within a distributed hydrologic model to characterize the spatial extent of flooding and associated hazards over sparsely gauged or ungauged basins. We present a methodology based entirely on satellite remote sensing data to set up and calibrate a hydrologic model, simulate the spatial extent of flooding, and evaluate the probability of detecting inundated areas. A raster-based distributed hydrologic model, CREST, was implemented for the Nzoia basin, a sub-basin of Lake Victoria in Africa. MODIS Terraand ASTER-based flood inundation maps were produced over the region and used to benchmark the distributed hydrologic model simulations of inundation areas. The analysis showed the value of integrating satellite data such as precipitation, land cover type, topography and other products along with space-based flood inundation extents as inputs to the distributed hydrological model. We conclude that the quantification of flooding spatial extent through optical sensors can help to calibrate and evaluate hydrologic models and hence potentially improve hydrologic prediction and flood management strategies in ungauged catchments.